Fresh off a win in Las Vegas, the Carolina Panthers are set to play host to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4 action.
Longtime Cincy pivot Andy Dalton is now the QB1 for Carolina, and my Bengals vs. Panthers predictions will lean heavily on his tight end Tommy Tremble, who’s set to step up for a depleted receiving corps.
Read more in my NFL picks for Sunday, September 29.
Bengals vs Panthers prediction
My best betTommy Tremble Over 19.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Tommy Tremble didn’t waste any time getting on Andy Dalton’s good side. He was targeted three times and caught all three balls for 23 yards in the Carolina Panthers’ upset win over the Raiders last weekend.
It was the tight end’s first full game back, playing 78% of snaps in Week 3 after being slowed by a hamstring injury this summer and missing Week 1. Tremble played only 46% of snaps in Week 2, yet he still caught three of four balls his way for 23 yards in the loss to the Chargers.
With top tight end Ian Thomas still on IR, Tremble’s role in the passing game will take another big step against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Carolina lost receiver Adam Thielen to injury last week, with the veteran wideout drawing the second most targets (12) on the team behind Diontae Johnson (26), who is currently listed as questionable with a groin ailment. That leaves an abundance of targets on the table for the Panthers’ other options.
The Bengals are frothing at the mouth entering Week 4, with Lou Anarumo calling out his defensive line for a lack of pass pressure in the loss to the Commanders on Monday. However, Cincy does manage to rank 13th in pass rush win rate at ESPN while the Panthers’ O-line sits 25th in the pass-blocking flip of that metric, leaving just 2.0 seconds of pocket time for its passers.
Player projections for Tremble aren’t running wild by any means, ranging from 14 yards to as many as 26 yards. Most models come in at 20 yards receiving from the Notre Dame product, with my number at 25 yards in Week 4 when weighing Thielen’s absence and Tremble’s role as a check-down option when the Bengals get after Dalton.
Although the Bengals did a good job covering rival tight ends in the opening two games, they watched Washington TE Zach Ertz catch all five passes his way for 38 yards in Monday’s loss.
Historically, Anarumo’s defense has been exposed by tight ends. It gave up the second most yards to TEs last season and has ranked Bottom 9 in yards allowed to the position in each of the past four years.
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Bengals vs Panthers same-game parlay
Tommy Tremble Over 19.5 receiving yardsZach Moss anytime touchdownBengals moneyline
+261 at BetMGM
With a hole in the receiving corps and the Bengals susceptible to TEs, Tremble could have his biggest day as Dalton’s safety blanket.
Zach Moss can find the end zone on the ground or through the air, facing a Panther defense ranked 31st inside the red zone.
The winless Bengals are desperate and a loss to Carolina could snap Cincy in half. This spread was as high as Cincinnati -7.5 before the loss on MNF. I believe in that line.
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Bengals vs Panthers odds
Bengals vs Panthers live odds
Bengals vs Panthers opening odds
- Spread: Cincinnati -7.5 | Carolina +7.5
- Moneyline: Cincinnati -300 | Carolina +240
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Bengals vs Panthers spread and Over/Under analysis
• Before the Bengals botched their home stand with Washington on Monday night, the look-ahead line was as big as Cincinnati -7.5. However, after that upset and with the Bengals traveling on a short week (as well as the Panthers pulling off a stunner over Vegas), the official Week 4 opener was Carolina +4.5.
• The total for this non-conference clash has been all over the place when you dive into the look-ahead lines. The number was as low as 43.5 before the events of Week 3, moving up to 45.5 O/U before the MNF result, and jumping to as high as 48.5 before settling at 47.5 points.
• This is a tricky situational spot for Cincinnati, having to travel on the short week after losing to Washington at home on Monday. Not only that, but the Bengals have to stay focused on Carolina and not look ahead to a key AFC North clash with Baltimore in Week 5.
