Last year’s MVP could be handing the torch over to 2024’s MVP as Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night in what will be the game of the week.
Allen and the Bills have not been tested much since the first half of Week 1 but a stronger opponent here should give this run-first team plenty of time to show bettors that they deserve to be on top of everyone’s power rankings.
I dig into this AFC matchup and give my best Bills vs. Ravens predictions and NFL picks for September 29.
Bills vs Ravens SNF prediction
My best betJames Cook 75+ rushing + receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
My analysisThere is a ton to like about James Cook on Sunday night as the Buffalo Bills running back has topped this number in the NFL player props in each game despite not being featured for four quarters in all of them.
The Bills had to play catch-up in Week 1 after putting themselves in an early hole to the Cardinals. Cook still finished with 101 total yards and had his heaviest workload with 19 carries and three targets. Cook got plenty of rest in the following games as the Bills pounded the Dolphins and Jaguars. Bettors should expect a higher usage on Sunday for one of the run-heaviest teams in football.
Cook will face a Baltimore Ravens team that has been good on paper against the run but has also seen the Raiders and Cowboys in consecutive weeks. Those two run games rank in the Bottom 10 in the league in success rate. This is also a Baltimore defense that gave up 26 points to the Raiders in Week 2 and allowed 21 fourth-quarter points to Dallas in Week 3.
This is not the same defense as last year and the loss of DC Mike McDonald is evident.
This also projects as the worst weather game on the slate with plenty of rain and 20-mph gusts expected. The ground game from Buffalo will be busy from start to finish, which is exciting as we have yet to see the best of this Buffalo offense.
Even if Buffalo is playing from behind, Cook’s role in the passing game makes him game script-proof as he has a decent 20% target share/route. Joe Brady scripts a lot of plays for him early as Cook is averaging 30 total yards per first quarter over the last two games.
With some unaccounted usage, the weather, and an overrated Baltimore defense, Cook’s total yards Overs are the best way to bet Sunday Night Football.
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Bills vs Ravens SNF same-game parlay
James Cook 75+ rushing + receiving yardsLamar Jackson 50+ rushing yardsLamar Jackson anytime TD
+575 at bet365
The Cook angle is great and if you want to boost this up, move Cook to 100 total yards and get around +1,400 in the SGP.
Lamar Jackson should also have a big game vs. this Bills defense. He put the Ravens on his shoulders last week when his team entered Dallas 0-2 SU and Jackson ran 14 times for 87 yards and a score.
The Bills’ defense has not been giving up explosive pass plays and a lot of that has to do with its usage of two-high safeties, which should give Jackson room to run. Kyler Murray had success running vs. this defense in Week 1 as he led his team with 57 yards on the ground on five carries with a long of 29.
The TD will be the toughest leg of this parlay but I still feel that any price for a Lamar TD above +140 has to be a bet. It’s a great bet by itself, but it boosts this play quite a bit, so it’s on the card.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bills vs Ravens odds
Bills vs Ravens live odds
Bills vs Ravens opening odds
- Spread: Buffalo +1.5 | Baltimore -1.5
- Moneyline: Buffalo +105 | Baltimore -125
- Over/Under: Over 46 | Under 46
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bills vs Ravens spread and Over/Under analysis
- I don’t understand the move from Ravens -1.5 to -2.5, to be honest. Yes, the Bills are coming off a big prime-time win and are on a short week, but Baltimore lost to Vegas (who might need to change QBs) and almost blew a 28-6 lead last week in Dallas when the Cowboys scored 21 unanswered points in nine minutes.
- The total has also surprisingly ticked up despite the likely chance of rain and winds up to 20 mph. This also projects as one of the slowest games of the week.
- Buffalo has been elite at protecting its new secondary and has been keeping things underneath. Don’t expect many big passing plays from the Ravens this Sunday night.
- The Ravens are 1-2 ATS this season and 3-0 to the Over, cashing the Over by a margin of 8.5 points last week, seven points in Week 2, and by one point on opening night in Week 1. Buffalo is 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U.
